Vulcan Materials Company - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning. Welcome everyone to the Vulcan Materials Company fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. My name is Angela, and I will be your conference call coordinator today. Please be reminded that today's call is being recorded and will be available for replay later today at the company's website. All lines have been placed in a listen-only mode. After the company's prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. Now, I will turn the call over to your host, Mr. Mark Warren, Vice President of Investor Relations for Vulcan Materials. Mr. Warren, you may begin.

Mark Warren (VP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator. With me today are Ronnie Pruitt, Chief Executive Officer, and Mary Andrews Carlisle, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Today's call is accompanied by a press release and a supplemental presentation posted to our website, vulcanmaterials.com. Please be reminded that today's discussion may include forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks and uncertainties. These risks, along with other legal disclaimers, are described in detail in the company's earnings release and in other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures are defined and reconciled in our earnings release, supplemental presentation, and other SEC filings. During the Q&A, we ask that you limit your participation to one question. This will allow us to accommodate as many as possible during our time we have available. With that, I'll turn the call over to Ronnie.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thanks, Mark, and thank you all for joining our call this morning. I am honored to be leading this great company and representing the men and women of Vulcan Materials. We had an outstanding safety year and delivered another year of robust growth in earnings and cash generation. I am proud of the way our teams executed in 2025. Their accomplishments position us well to take advantage of the growth opportunities ahead of us. We are committed to continue to improve our underlying business and expand our industry-leading aggregates franchise, both in our current footprint and new geographies. In 2025, we delivered $2.3 billion of Adjusted EBITDA, a 13% increase over the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 160 basis points to 29.3%.

Importantly, our Aggregates cash gross profit per ton grew to $11.33, achieving our previously established target of $11-$12 and driving operating cash flow of over $1.8 billion, a 29% increase over the prior year. As expected, Aggregates units profitability continued to expand and public demand continued to grow. However, single-family residential activity was weaker than we initially anticipated, yielding a full year volume and price at the lower end of our initial expectations. I was pleased with how our operating and sales teams adjusted to a dynamic environment by carefully managing inventories and tightly controlling costs, even with several fourth quarter timing impacts outside of their control. Our Aggregates units cash cost of sales increased less than 2% for the full year.

This performance is a great example of the Vulcan Way of Operating at work, allowing us to use our tools and disciplines to remain focused on what we can control. With implementation ongoing and incremental opportunities ahead of us, I am certain VWO will continue to enhance our results. Aggregate shipments of approximately 227 million tons increased 3% for the full year, with growth driven by prior year acquisitions. Same-store aggregate shipments for the full year were slightly lower than the prior year. In the fourth quarter, aggregate shipments increased 2% compared to the prior year, despite nearly 30% lower shipments in East Tennessee and North Carolina that had outside shipments in the prior year's fourth quarter as we supported the rebuilding efforts after Hurricane Helene.

Aggregates mix adjusted price improved 6% for the full year and 5% in the fourth quarter. Geographic mix from the acquisitions, the prior year elevated shipments in two of our higher-priced markets, and a shift in product mix all impacted year-over-year reported pricing in the quarter. While an acceleration in bookings for large projects with a wide complement of products and a quick conversion to shipments impacted sequential pricing in the fourth quarter, these activity levels bode well for 2026 demand and highlight our position as a supplier of choice on large projects that need to move quickly. Through the combination of our commercial and operational execution throughout 2025, aggregates cash gross profit per ton improved 7% for the year. This performance gives me confidence in our operating and sales teams' abilities to continue compounding our industry-leading unit profitability.

Now I'll turn the call over to Mary Andrews to provide some additional commentary on our 2025 performance.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

Thanks, Ronnie, and good morning. Our 2025 results are a clear depiction of the powerful combination of our two-pronged approach to growth. Through the continued expansion of our aggregates cash gross profit per ton across the franchise and the contribution of prior year strategic acquisitions, we increased our free cash flow by over 40% after reinvesting $678 million of total capital expenditures for operating and maintenance needs and internal growth projects. The strong cash generation allowed us to quickly delever the balance sheet after issuing $2 billion of new long-term notes in the fourth quarter of last year, positioning us well to capitalize on future growth opportunities.

We also returned $260 million to shareholders through our steadily growing dividend and $438 million through share repurchases. At year-end, our net debt to Adjusted EBITDA leverage was 1.8x. In March, we redeemed our 2025 notes at par for $400 million, and throughout the second half of the year, we paid down $550 million of commercial paper balances to reduce interest expense while maintaining the flexibility to reissue at any time. SG&A expenses for the full year were $564 million and 10 basis points lower than the prior year as a percentage of revenue at 7.1%. We remain pleased with the result our investments in technology and talent are yielding in the business.

Through compounding improvements in our business and strategic portfolio optimization, over the last three years, we have improved our Adjusted EBITDA margin by over 700 basis points and our return on invested capital by over 200 basis points. We anticipate further expansion in both metrics with the closing of the pending ready-mix divestiture and attractive profitability improvements in our underlying businesses in 2026, that I'll now pass back to Ronnie to highlight.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thanks, Mary Andrews. In 2026, we plan to continue our track record of compounding growth in what we expect to be an improving demand environment. We expect continued growth in public demand will now be complemented by improving private demand, resulting in modest overall growth in 2026. Growing demand is a beneficial backdrop for both the pricing and operating environments. Trailing 12 months, highway starts continue to grow and at three times the rate in Vulcan markets compared to the U.S. overall. IIJA dollars continue to drive increased spending in addition to funding from state DOTs and local initiatives. While the current highway funding programs authorized by IIJA continue through September of this year, over 50% of the funding is yet to be spent and will continue to flow through over the next several years. Efforts are already underway in Washington for a reauthorization bill.

Public non-highway infrastructure investments also continue to grow. Starts in Vulcan markets for water, sewer, and other infrastructure projects increased double digits in 2025, supporting shipments growth in 2026. On the private side, the affordability issue in single-family housing have yet to be resolved, but appear to be a priority of the administration. We expect that residential activity will be limited in 2026, but we will be monitoring closely for any improving opportunities in the second half of the year. While private non-residential activity continues to vary across categories, we are encouraged by the prospects of a return to modest growth in Vulcan served markets in 2026, led by industrial and non-residential categories. Data centers remain the biggest catalyst, with over 150 million sq ft under construction and another nearly 450 million sq ft announced.

Over 70% of this activity is occurring within 30 mi of the Vulcan Aggregates facility. Our footprint, scale, reliability, and logistics capabilities make us particularly well suited to partner with our customers and serve these fast-moving projects. Based on the demand expectations I just described, we expect aggregate shipments to grow between 1% and 3% in 2026. We expect aggregates freight adjusted average selling prices to increase between 4% and 6%, and aggregates units cash cost of sales to increase by low single-digit percentage. These expectations equate to another year of at least high single-digit expansion of our aggregates cash gross profit per ton, which will drive attractive earnings growth and cash generation. We expect to deliver between $2.4 billion and $2.6 billion of Adjusted EBITDA in 2026.

I'll now pass to Mary Andrews again to provide a few more details around the 2026 guidance before we take your questions.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

Thanks, Ronnie. To complement the solid aggregates outlook Ronnie just shared with you, we expect our downstream businesses to contribute approximately $290 million in cash gross profit. Roughly 85% of the earnings are expected to be derived from the asphalt segment, given our pruned ready-mix footprint. We forecast SG&A expenses of between $580 million and $590 million. We project depreciation, depletion, amortization, and accretion expenses of approximately $700 million, interest expense of approximately $225 million, and an effective tax rate between 22% and 23%. Consistent with our initial plans for 2025, we plan to reinvest in our franchise through operating and maintenance and internal growth capital expenditures of $750 million-$800 million in 2026.

This year's CapEx includes approximately $50 million of planned spending that shifted from the prior year into 2026 on the large plant rebuild projects underway. Overall, we expect to deliver another year of expansion and Adjusted EBITDA margin, growth and Adjusted EBITDA, and attractive cash generation in 2026. Now, Ronnie and I will be happy to take your questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, press star one on your keypad. To leave the queue at any time, press star two. As a reminder, we ask that you limit yourself to one question. Once again, that is star one if you'd like to ask a question. Our first question comes from Trey Grooms with Stephens. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Trey Grooms (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, everyone. So, Ronnie, given the, you know, the 4Q and where it landed, and then looking into the guide for this year, it clearly suggests that, you know, 4Q 2025 is not the trend. So could you talk about, you know, your confidence levels there and, you know, the puts and takes around the end market demand, as well as your expectations around pricing and profitability, and your outlook there for 2026, please?

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah. Good morning, Trey. Thanks for the question. Let me start with saying the business is executing well, and we're in a position to leverage demand growth, and I think a very healthy pricing environment for 2026. So first, on the demand side, public starts remains solid. It's, it's also reflected in the strength of our backlog. And then the other public infrastructure outside of highways is also a really good story for us as we continue to see that in our backlog as well. So overall, we expect really steady public growth in the public side. On the private side, let's start with private non-res. You know, we're seeing most of this activity in the industrial categories. Data centers continues to be a bright spot, and we're seeing increasing levels of activities reflected in our bookings as well.

Importantly, these data center projects are quickly converting to shipments, which we also anticipate growth in the power generation side as these data centers continue to get built out. On warehouses, you know, we're, we think they're finding the bottom, and we're seeing some potential green shoots in a number of our markets. Now, on the residential side, we're expecting the currently soft demand environment to improve somewhat in 2026, but this assumes that, you know, we get some help from interest rates and affordability. So we'll see how that plays out through the remainder of the year. So after really three years of muted growth, I mean, we expect 2026 to really return to a year of some modest growth.

And so an improving demand backdrop could provide both help on our cost side as well as even more upside on our pricing. You know, with our Vulcan Way of Selling disciplines, they're helping us really efficiently manage project leads and maximize pricing as we expect those efforts to continue to be a catalyst for pricing and profitability realization. And on the fixed plant price increases have largely been accepted, and improved visibility in the private side will help that. It'll also be helpful for as we think about midyears throughout the year. On the cost side, we're seeing really good traction on the Vulcan Way of Operating disciplines focused on plant production. And these efforts will, along with some volume growth, can also be a tailwind to our cost in 2026.

So as we look at 2026 as a year of potential growth, I think we're in a really strong position to capture more profitability and really drive that to our cash gross profit.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

Yeah, and Trey, maybe I can just give you a little extra context on the fourth quarter that may be helpful. We obviously had a very solid performance for 2025 overall and knew the fourth quarter would have some unusual year-over-year comparisons. But where we ultimately landed, which I would think about it as kind of essentially flat year-over-year on EBITDA, absent the geographic headwinds that we had from the prior year hurricane relief activity. And so, you know, where we landed, you know, was really impacted by three main factors that affected both revenue and cost and accounted for really most of the difference between that flat EBITDA and the growth that we anticipated.

So, you know, primarily, first and foremost, you know, residential activity, which was a challenge for the year, continued to weaken. You know, we also, secondly, had weather, winter came early, you know, in some of our seasonal markets, and Southern California was just extremely, extremely wet, which is unusual. And then, we also, you know, had some incremental costs, related to timing on both repairs and, insurance costs. So, you know, I think you'll see in our 2026 guidance that, you know, it, as, as you mentioned, clearly, reflects, you know, a continuation of the compounding improvements, that we expect, for our business moving forward.

Trey Grooms (Equity Research Analyst)

All right. Well, thank you for all the color there. That's super helpful. I'll pass it on. Thanks, Mary Andrews. Thanks, Ronnie.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thank you.

Trey Grooms (Equity Research Analyst)

Have a good day, and take care.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

You too.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tyler Brown with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

Tyler Brown (Managing Director and Senior Analyst in Equity Research)

Hey. Hey, good morning.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

Good morning, Tyler.

Tyler Brown (Managing Director and Senior Analyst in Equity Research)

Hey, I want to come back to the pricing, maybe a little bit different angle. So I appreciate you guys gave the 5% mix adjusted number, but could you kind of help bridge the 3-point difference between what you reported in mix? Because it seems like conceptually, you guys really benefited from storm work in high ASP markets last year that didn't reoccur, so geography was definitely working against you. It sounds like at the same time, you did a lot of quick, call it book and burn, base and fill work that comes in at a lot lower ASP, so product was a headwind, and then M&A was also a drag. So it felt like kind of maybe a triple whammy, if you will. But first, is all that right, and how much did each of those buckets have on the 3-point difference?

And then secondly, Mary Andrews, just from a shaping perspective, I appreciate the 4%-6% pricing, but should we expect to be on the low end early in the year and maybe higher later? Just, I assume some of these mix headwinds will persist. Sorry for the long question there.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

Yeah, no worries. First, you do have the triple whammy, as you called it, right, as it relates to the mix impacts on pricing in the fourth quarter. The, you know, the 300 basis points was about two-thirds the geographic mix from the, you know, strong shipments last year and those profitable markets. And then, you know, I'd say the other third was about 50/50. The, you know, continued impact from the acquisitions, which was, you know, actually lower in the fourth quarter than, you know, the full year, 100 basis points that we called out and did happen in 2025. And then the, you know, the other half of that third was the product mix that was really based on those projects.

You know, I think you're right to be thinking about pricing in 2026 is probably toward the lower end in the first half of the year, moving toward that, you know, the higher end as the year moves on. And I think that is reflective of, you know, the improving demand that we expect to see and just comps from last year. And Ronnie may want to comment more on the, you know, kind of the types of projects that we're shipping on.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah, Tyler, you know, I think as we as we look at going into 2026, our backlog and bookings is at a much better spot than it was year-over-year. So remember, our backlog doesn't account for 100% of our shipments, but it is typically around 40%-45% of our forward-looking backlog is what our shipments are going to look like. And so that's a good, healthy spot for us to be as we think about demand. And also remember the trends on these. You know, a lot of these large projects, which we categorize as 25,000 tons and above, historically, that makes up about 30% of our bookings. Today, we sit there, it's about 45% of our bookings in large projects, which is really reflective of that data center work.

Remember, we talked about these data centers. The first part of them are going to be base and fill, so that's where we're seeing the mix impact on. But as those projects continue to mature, then we'll see the clean stone and the clean size stones be shipped through the remainder of the project. So in our 4%-6% guide, we anticipate these shipments of these projects being more weighted heavily on the front end for base. But as those projects mature out, and so to Mary Andrews's point, that's why I think the pricing will play out through the year at the lower end of the first of the year, and then it'll play up at the higher end.

You know, second, when we talk about, you know, our fixed plant, you know, we sent out our fixed plant price increases at second half of 2025 for January, and the implementation of those and acceptance of those have gone as expected. And so I think we're in a healthy position as far as what those increases were accepted and announced the first part of the year. And then third, as I continue to think about the steady growth in public, you know, the continued positive improvements on the private non-res side, and then the potential recovery on single family. And I've talked about this in the past, is these improving demand and the backdrop of that is going to be a tailwind for us as we move forward.

And so again, we don't have midyears baked into these increases or our guidance, but we would anticipate definitely going forward with midyears, and I think that momentum and demand will help us.

Tyler Brown (Managing Director and Senior Analyst in Equity Research)

Perfect. Excellent color. Thank you for indulging me. Thank you so much. Thanks.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Asher Sohnen (Equity Research Senior Associate)

Hi, this is Asher Sohnen in for Anthony. Thanks for taking my question. I just wanted to ask, you know, what kind of gives you the confidence that you can kind of keep costs down in 2026, so, you know, low single-digit inflation? Is it, you know, sort of what you're seeing in underlying inflation or, you know, maybe Vulcan Way of Operating and cost takeout? And then, just dovetailing off some earlier mix questions, is there a mix impact baked into that low single-digit from the kind of Base Stone?

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah. So on the cost side, what gives us confidence on cost is definitely Vulcan Way of Operating. You know, and so as I look at where we finish the year, you know, down or up less than 2% for 2025. Overall, I think 2025 was a really good year on cost, and we anticipate that to continue. When I look at the maturity of Vulcan Way of Operating, you know, we said we're focused on our 120+ plants. That represents about 75% of our production. So we're very mature on the process intelligence, on our labor scheduling tools, and really on the focus on our critical size production. You know, and where we're going to continue to focus on is the development of our people.

So our plant operators are really adapting to using these screens and really driving more efficient production in our plants. But when I look overall, I mean, I'm very pleased where we're at. I think labor is going to continue to be one that as labor increases will happen in markets, our ability to control that and our ability to outperform the market with our labor control is going to be critical as and that's a big part of Vulcan Way of Operating, and so I'm very pleased with that. And to your point, you know, what we talk about on the mix side with our drag on pricing, the mix is a benefit to us in the way we operate our plants. And so our plants are in a really good shape on yield.

You know, the amount of fines that we have and the way we mine in our pits, we're in a really good position. We've gone through three years of muted demand, and we really haven't built any inventory. And so we've really managed through three years of this muted demand in a way that it puts us in a very good position when demand starts to recover, that our costs are going to be just as much of a tailwind as it will be on price.

Asher Sohnen (Equity Research Senior Associate)

Great. Thanks, that's, that's really helpful. I'll turn it over.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Kathryn Thompson with Thompson Research Group. Please go ahead.

Kathryn Thompson (Founding Partner and CEO)

Hi, thank you for taking my question today. Focusing on the policy side, with IIJA expiring in September, but states also taking greater control of their own financing destiny, how is the dynamic of kind of the messiness that inevitably happens with the reauthorization bill baked into your guidance? And then also perhaps clarify a little bit more how states are taking control for the ones that matter for you, and how are you thinking about that with your public end market? And then one cleanup question, just as we're assuming that the divested assets in the Bay Area are not included in the guide. Thanks so much.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah, I'll let Mary Andrews talk about the guide on the, on the, divested assets. She can give you some color on that. On the public side, you know, I mean, I think we're going into the year with a couple of assumptions. You know, one, that a bill will get done. You know, will it be on time, or will it be in the form of a continuing resolution? Who knows? But historically, we're gonna get a bill done. And two, based on historic measures, the bill will always be higher than the previous bill, and so we're expecting that. But the good thing for us is, Kathryn, is that 50% of the money has yet to be spent, and so we will see the tail of IIJA continue through 2026 and well into 2027.

You know, when I look at our markets and I look at bulk and served markets, on a trailing 12, starts dollars in bulk and served markets are up 24% year-over-year, 20-2025 versus 2024. And so those dollars are gonna be put into work in 2026 as far as the demand for our products. And if you go back to the start of IIJA, you know, our markets are up 80% in, in, in starts dollars. And so it's a, it's a really good tailwind, but we've said the entire time that IIJA would be slow and steady, and we continue to see that. You know, in California, one of our standout markets, I mean, highway starts are up 47% in 2025 versus 2024.

And so that's another market that we will see 2026 continue to see strong demand from, from highway dollars being put in place. In the Southeast, we've seen significant jumps in bookings in Alabama, in Georgia, in South Carolina, in Tennessee, and so again, right in the heart of our Southeast group, and I think those dollars are gonna continue to be put to work. And we've also seen other public works, you know, like beach restorations, port renovations, airport projects. Those kind of starts in bulk and served markets, two-thirds of our GM areas, which we have 19 GM areas, so 14 of our 19 GM areas, we're seeing double-digit increases in starts in those other public works.

And so I would say public, for all things considered, public is probably the most clarity we have, and I think we're very confident in that. And I'll let Mary Andrews talk about the modeling on the divested assets.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

Yeah, Kathryn, you're right. The ready-mix assets, we have excluded from the guidance. So I think the best way to think about that is, you know, the guide at the midpoint on a same-store basis is really, you know, over 10% growth in 2026.

Kathryn Thompson (Founding Partner and CEO)

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll go next to Angel Castillo with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Angel Castillo (Executive Director and Head of US Machinery and Construction Equity Research)

Thanks, and good morning, everyone. So you outlined the big opportunity from data centers on the slide, and I just wanted to unpack a little bit more, particularly the comments around the base versus clean stone timing. I think the timing of mix drag, you know, versus maybe the uplift as you start to ship more clean stone in the latter stages makes a lot of sense. But can you just maybe talk about this more holistically as to whether a data center project, you know, all in, is higher or lower margin than a traditional manufacturing project when you kind of ignore the timing of some of these things?

And then just as we think about data centers, you know, being such a big growth factor in the next few years, is the right way to think about the DC opportunity here as perhaps a bit of a drag here for price margins until the number of projects being completed starts to really exceed those starting up? And if so, can you just quantify that? I don't know if I missed this, but just how much of a drag that is in your 2022 guide. I'm just trying to think about how to model this, you know, how to understand this, just given so much growth in this vertical.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah, you know, I think you summed it up right. I mean, as we look at the continued demand for data centers, we're gonna continue to see the mix issues. And so, you know, if I would look at base pricing across, you know, multiple geographies, and geographies can have a big impact on that as well, but on average, base can sell for, you know, $8-$10 below what our clean stone products are. But on a margin basis, it's not that big of impact. And so I think we will continue to see tailwinds on the cost side as we continue to ship that.

And so a lot of the base shipments that we've had will start to turn into clean project clean stone as we ship those projects as far as what we're shipping in 2025. But I would tell you the opportunities in 2026 will continue to be a lot of base opportunities, which we want to take advantage of. I mean, those are great projects. They again play really well into the shape of our pits, our plants, the productivity of our plants. And so I think it's gonna continue to play out, but I do think it'll be more of a uniform mix as we start to see clean products ship to those same projects because they are going vertical. And once they start going vertical, you know, that's where the concrete shipments kick in.

Angel Castillo (Executive Director and Head of US Machinery and Construction Equity Research)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Dudas with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Michael Dudas (Partner)

Morning, Mary Andrews, Mark, and Ronnie.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Hey, good morning.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

Good morning.

Michael Dudas (Partner)

Ronnie, you guys done, and Mary Andrews done a great job on the balance sheet, and it's below your, your targets. Maybe you could share your thoughts on, as you come out of the box here, the pipeline for M&A? What your early indications of opportunities, and you did mention in your, I think, first couple of statements of current and new geographies. Just maybe a little bit more thought on that. I'm sure you'll be discussing more of that with your investor day next month. Thanks.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah, thank you. You know, if you look back over what we experienced in 2025, I mean, if you remember, we closed two really big deals at the end of 2024, and so 2025 for us was a year of integrating those deals and executing on that. And we also said during times of uncertainty, which we saw at the first half of 2025, with you know, tariffs and interest rates and those headwinds, that both sides, the seller side as well as the buyer side, there was just a pause in a lot of the markets and we didn't see a lot of activity in 2025. As I look at 2026, I do think it's going to be a very active year on the strategy side and the M&A front.

I would tell you, for us, you know, what we'll see out of Vulcan will be, one, it's gonna continue to be aggregates-led. We're gonna be very disciplined around that. We're gonna continue to look at things within our geography, but when I say new geographies, I mean, we have to be able to expand that footprint, because at the end, if we're gonna be, you know, that particular on what we want, we have to be able to expand that look and open that market up for some new looks and geographies. And so I would say our pipeline is very healthy. We're in some really good conversations with some potential sellers, but again, it's something we have to be very disciplined in. We don't wanna force that. We don't wanna end up overpaying for things that we don't have to.

It takes two sides, but I would anticipate 2026 being a very active year.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

And you're right, Mike. We have, you know, absolutely have the balance sheet well positioned, and, you know, the cash generation of this business just position us very well, you know, for the long term to be able to continue to pursue the M&A activity opportunities that make sense for us.

Michael Dudas (Partner)

Excellent. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Timna Tanners with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Yeah. Hey, good morning. I wanted to dive in a little bit more on your positive private demand view and ask, how much of your mix is data centers, and what's embedded in your volume forecast for the housing recovery that you mentioned in the second half?

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

So we are anticipating recovery on the single-family side to be really flat. So it'll be very slow, and even with some help from interest rates, you know, we're we will be lagging that. And so as we start to see starts increase on the residential side, I would say we'll be several months behind that. And so that'll be a. If we get some help on affordability through interest rate cuts, that'll be a definite second half opportunity for us, and I think that opportunity would come in the form of very geographically driven by, you know, where jobs are being created. So markets matter. That's why I love our footprint, because I think our markets will outperform the rest of the country when it comes to recovery and residential.

And then with data centers on the, on the private side, they're, they're a very, very large piece of the private side and what we're seeing on the private non-res recovery, and I would expect that to continue. I think, Timna, what we will start to see as, as we play this out, though, is the energy demand that these data centers are creating. So I think we will start to see some energy projects. We're in some talks on, on those now. Some of those are included in the data centers as we look at those, so there are some energy pieces of that, that these data centers are being required to build out some of their own energy infrastructure.

But there's also some other things as far as, you know, some LNG projects that are going back, and when those things kick in, they're very heavily aggregate intensive. But we also have some, you know, $6 billion Eli Lilly project here in Alabama that's kicking off. And so we've got some other things on the private non-res side that are gonna be kicking in. But I would say, you know, at the start of the year, they're still very heavily weighted towards data centers, and I think other types of manufacturing will kick in as we go throughout the year. But that's what gives us confidence. And really, returning to growth is our bookings. Our bookings pace is really strong, and those forward-looking indicators are start to improve.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay. Did you have the percentage of your mix that's data centers for us, please?

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah, I mean, we don't break that out in our backlog just because it gets too wonky when it comes to the differences in those mixes. But it's heavily influenced by data centers as of today.

Timna Tanners (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Okay. Thank you again.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Garik Shmois with Loop Capital. Please go ahead.

Garik Shmois (Managing Director)

Oh, hi, thanks. Ronnie, you mentioned a couple of times about mid-year price increases, recognizing it's not in your guidance, but what kind of demand do you need to see, whether it's big picture in a local market, to start thinking about implementing mid-year price increases?

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah, I think it's twofold there. I think it's some visibility into demand improving, but when we talk about mid-years, I mean, it's really talking about two sides of our business. On the fixed plant side, it's talking about the concrete side of our business as well as the asphalt side of our business. I would single out that, you know, the concrete side of our business, we need to see some recovery on single-family. Our concrete customers have had a lot of pressure on them around the muted demand on single-family, and so, you know, that side of it, that visibility into some help on affordability, some help with relief on the interest rates, would give us some tailwinds on mid-year with the concrete side of our business.

On the asphalt side, it really is more of the public and private non-res continuing, so we've seen great momentum there. And so I'd say as we go into the year, I think we're in a good position. I would say we're in a better position in 2026 for the success of those mid-years than we were as we, you know, as we looked at how 2025 developed. And so I think it's a combination of both single family and public, but single family will be weighted more towards, you know, the concrete side of our business, and the public will be weighted more towards the asphalt side of our business.  [0:36:24]  Garik Shmois [Managing Director] (Loop Capital Markets) 5 Words ... Sounds good. Thank you.  [0:36:25]  Ronnie Pruitt [SVP and COO] (Vulcan Materials Company) 2 Words Thank you.  [0:36:28]  Operator 12 Words Thank you. Our next question comes from Adam Thaof those mid-years than we were as we, you know, as we looked at how 2025 developed. And so I think it's a combination of both single family and public, but single family will be weighted more towards, you know, the concrete side of our business, and the public will be weighted more towards the asphalt side of our business.

Garik Shmois (Managing Director)

... Sounds good. Thank you.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Adam Thalhimer with Thompson Davis.

Adam Thalhimer (Director of Research)

Hey, good morning, guys.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Hey.

Adam Thalhimer (Director of Research)

I was hoping you could comment on the cadence of EBITDA this year, and I'm curious if we should bake in another EBITDA decline in Q1, you know, followed by strengthening as the year goes on, or if you actually see the year starting off faster than that.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

Yeah, Adam, I'll start on that one. I think the best way to think about 2026 EBITDA would be to think about seasonality and not year-over-year comparisons. And, you know, so if you think about normal seasonality to spread, you know, EBITDA in 2026, the year-over-year comps, as you referenced, will look different in the first half versus the second half, but I think that's the best way to go about it.

Adam Thalhimer (Director of Research)

Okay, thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from David MacGregor with Longbow Research. Please go ahead.

David MacGregor (President)

Yes, good morning, everyone. I guess my question is on price cost, and, in the guide, you were very specific about your price assumptions, but characterized cost is up low single digits. So it seems like maybe there's still some uncertainty there with respect to your perspective on costs. And so I guess I was just going to get you to walk through what are the biggest sources of uncertainty for you within your cost structure as you look forward into 2026?

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah, I mean, I think we're confident in that low single digit, which, you know, that's kind of how 2025 played out. And so I think the things we can control when we talk about our labor, our energy, our fuel, I mean, I think we've got a lot of visibility into that, and so I think we have a lot of confidence in that. And I think the pieces, the rest of the pieces are really tied to continued performance on the demand side of our business.

And so again, when you think about three years of downward or muted demand in our markets and our ability to control, you know, even with the variability of our cost structure, you know, falling volumes is a tough headwind to continue to drive lower cost in an inflationary environment. So I look at it overall, and I think we're in a really good position as far as Vulcan Way of Operating and the things we're focused on. And our men and women out there every day show up dedicated to continue to drive efficiencies, continuous improvement in all of our operations.

And so I'm excited about that, and I think we have a good runway ahead of us as markets continue to improve, and demand, again, will give us as much tailwind on cost as it will on price. And so I think we're in a good position, and I'm confident in our ability to deliver that.

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

Yeah, and importantly, that, you know, price cost, you know, spread that we, we expect, to deliver, you know, another year of cash versus profit per ton growth, you know, at the high single-digit % level. So just another demonstration of the way the business continues to compound.

David MacGregor (President)

Great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll go next to Steven Fisher with UBS. Please go ahead.

Steven Fisher (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks. Good morning. It sounds like you have a bigger mix of larger projects in backlog this year. Just curious what you're seeing in terms of project delays. Has anything been delayed in, say, the second half of 2025 relative to the start timing that you were expecting? And have you baked those further or any further delays into your guidance in 2026? I know we're hearing that labor is a real issue, and I just wanna make sure we're not gonna be surprised by any sort of further delays on projects.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

No, I think it's a mix. I would tell you on the... You know, as we look at our bookings and those large projects, one, there's a mix between private side as far as the data center work, and then, and then the public side with highways. And I'd really tell you, it's the tale of kind of two different stories. On the private side, the data center stuff is actually moving faster, and so our times from bookings to actually shipments has accelerated on that side. On the public side, it's been a mix. I mean, it really is very geographic, depending on, you know, weather impacts and other things as far as planning with the DOTs. And, you know, throughout the evolution of IIJA, we saw it very slow to kick off.

I do think as it's become more mature, those dollars are being put to work. The time from booking to actually shipping has become more of a normal pace back to a—it's about a six-month timeframe from the time we book to the time we ship. Public sometimes can drag out a little longer than that, but as we go into 2026, we don't anticipate the timing of those to be impacted by anything. We think they'll be back to kind of a normal flow.

Steven Fisher (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you very much.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from Ivan Yi with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Ivan Yi (Director)

Hey, good morning. Thanks for the time. You guided to 2% aggregate volume growth this year, and that's the same as Martin. But looking at the contract award data, you seem to have a more favorable geography with greater exposure to California, Georgia, Tennessee, and some other states. So I guess I'm just wondering why your volume guidance isn't a little bit higher than that 2%. Thank you.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah, I mean, I think coming off of three years of down volume and, you know, what we've seen as far as the conversion of the bookings to shipments, I mean, like I said, our backlog is in a really good spot, but that backlog, again, is only represents about 40%-45% of our shipments. And if you look at the balance of... It's kind of 50/50 between public and private, and so we really just need single family to recover. And until we start continuing to see some relief on affordability and interest rates, you know, I don't think we want to get out ahead of ourselves in thinking that demand can get back to anything, you know, really good.

Single family just has to kick in, and so we're gonna continue to be very conservative as we look at that.

Ivan Yi (Director)

... Thank you.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, and we'll go next to Brian Brophy with Stifel. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Brian Brophy (Director)

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, everybody. Appreciate you taking the question. You mentioned in some of your comments some repairs and insurance costs that impacted the quarter. I think you meant also mentioned the plant rebuilds. Can you size the impact from some of these costs that you had mentioned that impacted the quarter? Should we be thinking about these as more one time or ongoing? And then is there any reason to think that some of these costs linger into the first quarter? Thanks.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Yeah, let me start. I'll turn it over to Mary Andrews, and she'll give you a little more color on some of the numbers. But as you think about how the year played out in 2025, I mean, we went into 2025 saying we would anticipate low single-digit increases in cost. We finished the year at less than 2%. Now, as we started 2025, we had a lot of weather impact at the first part of the year. Seasonality, as far as really the first two quarters were tremendously impacted. And so a lot of the work, when we talk about project work, those are expenses that we're doing within our plants. It just got pushed throughout the year.

And even in the third quarter of last year, we said, "You know, don't measure cost with one quarter because it can be so lumpy." That's how the year played out. And so I think as we go into 2026, we plan these things out based on we would love for everything to be very uniform, and like we spend the same amount every month is that's the way we would love to plan it out, but unfortunately, it's an outdoor sport, and weather does impact that, and weather does impact the timing of those. As far as the plant rebuilds, we call those out because we have several rebuilds going on, large projects, but they're all accounted for in both our cost as well as our CapEx plan for 2026.

I think we have really good visibility there that gives us a lot of confidence. Anything, Mary Andrews, you want to add on kind of the lumpiness of that?

Mary Andrews Carlisle (Senior VP and CFO)

No, I would say, you know, as we called out, it's really timing. Our 2026 guidance, you know, includes what we anticipate for this year. If you do think about the fourth quarter, I would think about that being kind of 50/50 revenue and cost in terms of, you know, where, where we landed versus expectations. And the majority of that cost was related to those timing issues that, that Ronnie described.

Brian Brophy (Director)

Very helpful color. Thank you.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thank you, Brian.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, there are no further questions in queue. I will now turn the meeting back to CEO Ronnie Pruitt.

Ronnie Pruitt (SVP and COO)

Thank you, operator. As I said at the start, I'm honored to be leading the men and women of Vulcan Materials to continue a track record of creating value for all of our stakeholders. When I reflect back on just four and a half years ago, when I had the opportunity to join this organization, our trailing 12 months aggregate cash gross profit per ton was $7.33. In 2025, it was $4 or 55% higher, and within the range of our long-term range that we set of $11-$12 that we provided at our last Investor Day in 2022. We look forward to sharing with you our plans for continuous improvements and future growth at our upcoming 2026 Investor Day next month. Again, thank you all for your interest in Vulcan Materials.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This brings us to the end of today's meeting. We appreciate your time and participation. You may now disconnect.